Each year, we take an integrated snapshot of property prices in key markets around the world. These are markets that we follow internally because they have been a good source of opportunity over the years.
Taking snapshots of what properties are selling for is a good way to monitor long-term trends in market performance… But it’s also good for spotting shorter-term market anomalies… situations that present opportunities.
And just as importantly, surveying property markets is necessary to see when markets are leveling off… markets whose most profitable days are behind them. One of my frequently made mistakes is staying too long after the best days are over.
One thing you’ll notice in this year’s study is the outsized influence that exchange rates had on the results. Exchange rates can cause market prices to move quickly… Significant shifts can happen in weeks or days.
So act quickly if you’re planning on taking advantage of a favorable exchange rate. It’s the most temporary of changes in value.
Best Overall Value: Fortaleza, Brazil
- Cost per square meter: $1,222
- Property trades in: Brazilian reals (BRL)
- This year’s price change: Decreased 32%
Fortaleza is the crowning jewel of Northeast Brazil. If I were to move back to Brazil, this area is where I’d want to be. The year-round weather is nicer than any climate I’ve found in Brazil, with pleasant onshore breezes to keep the tropical temperatures in check.
The waterfront boardwalk is active, upbeat, and bustling day and night, with people walking, jogging, or relaxing on a bench. The huge waterfront artisan market draws people from far and wide.
Founded in 1726, Fortaleza is a city of 2.4 million people—4.2 million in the metro area—and the capital of the state of Ceará.
And at just $1,222 per square meter, prices in Fortaleza are at bargain levels. Prices dropped by 32% this year, mostly due to a 26% positive change in the exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. So today’s great prices can change quickly as the exchange rate changes.
The average price of a two-bedroom luxury property here is just $114,000 at today’s exchange rates. But with its lopsided exchange rate… today’s prices could be short-lived in Brazil.
Best Beachfront Bargain: Santa Marta, Colombia
- Cost per square meter: $1,826
- Property trades in: Colombian pesos (COP)
- This year’s price change: Increased 5.2%
Properties in Santa Marta still sell for an amazing $1,826 per square meter, one of the world’s least-expensive beach markets. Prices have gone up a dramatic 59% over the past three years, so the market is not stagnant… Yet it’s still among the lowest-priced you’ll find.
The continued weakness of the Colombian peso has helped to keep prices at these low levels.
Santa Marta is Colombia’s oldest city, founded in 1525. By “Santa Marta,” I’m referring to both Santa Marta and its surrounding area, from the beautiful beaches of Taganga in the north, through the historic center, to the luxury projects on the way to the airport south of the city.
Each of Santa Marta’s areas has its own unique and special character, and each has its fans. My personal favorite is El Rodadero because of its high-energy, down-home, unpretentious Colombian vibe and its low property prices.
But while we foreigners like El Rodadero’s high-energy atmosphere, I have to admit that it’s not the favorite of most Colombian second homeowners, who often prefer the quieter, higher-end developments south of town.
A good example of an apartment here was a large unit of 112 square meters, with two bedrooms and two baths. The unit has a nice ocean view, looking down on the beach. The asking price at today’s exchange rate is $113,500 (500,000,000 Colombian pesos).
Check out these other high-value beachfront markets…
- Iskele Long Beach comes in just behind Santa Marta. Although average pricing is down from last year’s peak, Iskele is still one of the world’s best-performing and lowest-cost beachfront destinations at just $2,026 per square meter. This solid market has gone up by a respectable 27.7% over the past three years.
- Cartagena, Colombia, sits at an amazing price, thanks to favorable exchange rates with the Colombian peso. At just $2,039 per square meter, you can’t beat the price for a property in this excellent tourism market and World Heritage Site.
- Mazatlán, México, offers Mexico’s least-expensive beachfront. At $2,927 per meter, Mazatlán showed an increase of 11% this year and 51% over the past three years in dollar terms. Dollar-holders in Mexico enjoyed a 22.5% increase in buying power this year, without which prices would be far higher.
Best Three-Year Market Performance
Looking at a single year’s performance is useful if you want to spot a trend early… early enough to take action. But a three-year trend is better for spotting a sustained performance and getting a better idea of a market’s longer-term prospects.
Here’s the top performer, based on year-end prices for 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Medellín, Colombia
- Cost per square meter: $2,347
- Property trades in: Colombian pesos (COP)
- This year’s price change: Increased 65.5%
Medellín takes the top spot. Prices for a two-bedroom, two-bath condo have increased 66% over the past three years. As a former Medellín homeowner, I can tell you that the city’s lifestyle is unmatched in the Americas, as is its weather.
The average high temperature in Medellín is 72.5° (22.5°C)… but the surprising part is that there is only 1° of seasonal variation. The weather is one reason why Medellín has such a strong rental market… there’s no off-season.
But the overall lifestyle is more remarkable than the weather. Just in the El Poblado neighborhood alone, you’ll find dozens of high-end restaurants, cafés, and coffee shops, most of which have outdoor dining in the pleasant weather. There are orchestras, theaters, and dozens of cultural events.
There is more to see and do in Medellín than you could experience in a lifetime.
In Medellín, you can expect to spend around $180,000 (at today’s exchange rates) for a roomy, two-bedroom apartment in a convenient, walkable area.
And don’t overlook the long-term performance in these areas:
- Santa Marta, Colombia, has increased 59% over the past three years. Santa Marta is not only a high-performing market, but as I mentioned above, it’s one of the most affordable beach destinations in the world.
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Valencia (Ciutat Vella), Spain, has gone up 53% since 2022. Ciutat Vella—which means the old city in Catalan—is Valencia’s cultural, historic, and political center. It is home to many of the city’s attractions, including its 13th-century cathedral and central market. Its narrow streets and attractive plazas are sought out by tourists and locals alike.
It's notable that the property values are growing faster in Ciutat Vella than at Valencia’s beaches, which are considered by many to be the main attraction here.
- Mazatlán, Mexico, has increased 51% over the past three years. I have a home in Mazatlán, so I follow this market closely. What makes its stellar performance even more remarkable is that Mazatlán has constructed thousands of new units over the past few years and was able to absorb them without driving prices down.
Price, Performance, And Momentum Are Important… But They’re Not Everything
If you’re looking for a home abroad for your own use, then price—and buying at a good price point—may be your most important consideration.
In fact, the price, the view, the cost of living, amenities, and the weather are probably all you need to care about.
Investors, however, will need to consider occupancies, rental demographics, liquidity, ease of getting there, and a host of other factors—in addition to price—before making a final decision.
But regardless of your final goal, arming yourself with good market data will give you a solid start.
Sincerely,
Lee Harrison
Contributor, Global Property Advisor